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Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

RESULTS: …  Based on the observed doubling times of the epidemic before and after the implementation of NPIs, we estimated that one week of early exponential spread required 3.1 weeks (95% CI: 2.8-3.3 weeks) of ‚lockdown‘ to reduce the number of infections to the same level. Introducing the same sequence of NPIs one week earlier or later would have resulted in substantially lower (399, 95% prediction interval, PI: 347-458) and higher (8,683, 95% PI: 8,038-9,453) numbers of deaths, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of NPIs in March 2020 prevented thousands of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths in Switzerland. Early implementation of NPIs during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks can reduce the number of deaths and the necessary duration of strict control measures considerably.

Quelle: Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020 | medRxiv